Asian Shares Mostly Higher as Fed Easing Hopes Rise

Asian markets were mostly higher early Monday with investors balancing mixed Chinese economic data against rising hopes for stimulus measures from the Federal Reserve following Friday’s weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data, while a stronger yen limited the upside for Japanese stocks.

Markets were digesting Chinese economic data released over the weekend that showed industrial production continued to slow in August, up 8.9% on year compared with July’s 9.2% rise, its lowest rate since May 2009. The Consumer Price Index added 2.0% on year in August, up from 1.8% in July.

Now that the European Central Bank has unveiled its bond-buying plan to address Europe’s debt crisis, attention is on the U.S. Federal Reserve, and whether it will launch a new round of quantitative easing at its two-day policy meeting set to commence on Wednesday. U.S. employment data released on Friday failed to meet expectations and strengthened hopes that the Fed will introduce fresh stimulus measures this week.

 

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China Faces Policy Dilemma if August Data as Bad as Expected

(Reuters) – A deluge of data out of China on Sunday could confirm investors’ worst fears that a downswing in the world’s second-biggest economy has stretched into a seventh straight quarter, leaving global markets with no respite from the gloom.

But any hope that the data, covering August, will spur Beijing to shore up the economy by cutting interest rates may be misplaced, as inflation is expected to accelerate, albeit from low levels.

The awkward combination of rising prices while growth in exports and factory output wilts puts Beijing in a policy dilemma: relax policy and risk an inflation spike, or stand still and risk a sharper cooldown in activity.

With the Communist Party’s once-a-decade leadership change looming, it could happen as early as next month, analysts fear China could fall prey to “policy paralysis”.

Despite growing evidence that the economy needs new stimulus measures to regather momentum, policymakers could opt to hold fire out of fear that a surge in prices could stoke social unrest at a politically sensitive time.

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China’s economy: Slow Boats

THE Chinese economy has a habit of beating expectations. For ten years in a row, from 2001 to 2010, its growth rate exceeded the IMF’s spring forecast, often by a big margin. But this year it is likely to disappoint. In recent months, industrial output has slowed sharply; stocks of unsold goods are piling up; and Shanghai’s stockmarket is at a three-year low. For the first time this century, in 2012 China’s growth rate may dip below 8%. With the world ever more dependent on China’s economy, that is worrying.

No economy can grow by double digits forever. As China’s economy matures and its labour force peaks, it is only natural that its pace of expansion eases. But the slowdown of recent quarters is cyclical, not structural, reflecting a loss of puff, rather than a shortening stride. China has seen a sharp drop in demand, as export sales fall and residential investment falters.

Some of the global headwinds buffeting China were foreseeable (see article). Nonetheless, most economists assumed the country’s policymakers could quickly revive growth if necessary. In China , in contrast to Japan or America, interest rates (and bank reserve requirements) have plenty of room to fall. China has an enviable amount of fiscal leeway. And its property slowdown largely reflects government curbs on speculative homebuying that officials could lift, if they so chose.

 

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China announces £800bn stimulus to boost confidence

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/9500548/China-announces-800bn-stimulus-to-boost-confidence.htmlOne Chinese province after another has stepped forward over the last fortnight to announce their plans, in what appears to be a propaganda effort to reassure the public that the economy is still on track.

Meanwhile, Wen Jiabao, the Chinese premier, promised over the weekend that the Chinese government would intensify its efforts to boost the economy in the second half of the year.

On a visit to Guangdong, the heartland of China‘s export industry, Mr Wen warned that “there will still be a lot of problems and uncertainties in exports going forward. The third quarter is a crucial period”.

Analysts said the government could now steer the value of the yuan lower, after a gain of 4.7pc last year against the dollar. Further export tax rebates could also be used to bail out manufacturers.

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India, China meet to resolve trade matters, strengthen ties

India, China meet to resolve trade matters, strengthen tiesBeijing on Monday assured New Delhi of resolving the issue of trade highly lopsided in favour of China, by giving greater market access to India in information technology (IT), agriculture and pharmaceutical sectors.

At the ninth session of the joint group of India and China on economic relations, trade, science and technology here, Beijing, on the other hand raised the issue of increase in customs duty by New Delhi on imports of power equipment from that country.

 

The two fastest growing large economies in the world agreed to set up a joint working group to look into all trade related matters, including data collection, as well as investments. The two sides also decided to work on a five-year plan for economic co-operation.

In another development, nine memoranda of understanding (MoU) were signed between companies of the two countries entailing import intention of $189 million from India, at a function organised by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (Ficci) and China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products (CCCME). Besides, an MoU between Ficci and CCCME for joint cooperation was also inked.

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Chinese Stocks Advance on Home Prices, Manufacturing

Most Chinese stocks rose after the nation’s home prices advanced for the first time in 10 months and manufacturing indicators beat forecasts.

Poly Real Estate Group Co., the nation’s second-biggest property developer, surged 2.3 percent as data showed home prices across 100 cities increased in June. Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. paced an advance for material stocks as speculation Europe’s debt crisis is easing bolstered the outlook for commodities demand. SAIC Motor Corp., the biggest Chinese automaker, slid 8.5 percent after the Guangzhou Daily reported that Guangzhou city will cap the number of new car purchases.

Six stocks gained for every two that declined on the Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP), which rose less than 0.1 percent to 2,226.11 at the close. The CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300) added 0.2 percent to 2,465.24. The Bloomberg China-US 55 Index (CH55BN), the measure of the most-traded U.S.-listed Chinese companies, jumped 2.9 percent in New York on June 29.

China’s manufacturing “data was better than expected and there seemed to be some resolution in Europe,” said Mao Sheng, an analyst for Huaxi Securities Co. in Chengdu. “Still, investors are quite concerned about the economy.”

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How Asia Will Fare if Europe Cracks

BY ALEX FRANGOS

As the Euro Zone Flirts With Disaster, Asian Economies Stand at Varying Degrees of Preparedness

HONG KONG—Greek elections may have assuaged fears of a European financial contagion spreading to Asia, at least for the moment. But as troubles brew in Spain, where borrowing costs shot up again Tuesday, and as Greece faces more painful cuts to meet bailout targets by September, many wonder who in Asia is most exposed should Europe’s economy and financial system finally crack.

Lessons from the 2008 financial crisis show that while all of Asia tends to get hit when the world economy shudders, the severity differs depending on which countries have the biggest trade and financial linkages to the rest …

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Nikkei ends at 5-week high, softer yen supports

By Dominic Lau TOKYO, June 21 (Reuters) – Japan’s Nikkei average broke above 8,800 for the first time in five weeks on Thursday, as sentiment was buoyed by a softer yen after the U.S. Federal Reserve held back from more aggressive stimulus steps to prop up the economy.

The benchmark Nikkei hit its highest closing level since May
17 and has recovered 7 percent from a six-month low on June 4.

Shrugging off a survey showing China’s vast manufacturing sector slowing for the eighth straight month, the Nikkei rose 0.8 percent to 8,824.07, driven by exporters, such as Honda Motor Co Ltd, up 3.5 percent, and Canon Inc, adding 1.4 percent. The Fed disappointed some investors by delivering only a limited expansion of monetary stimulus on Wednesday. It extended its “Operation Twist” beyond its original June expiration to the end of the year to boost the flagging U.S. recovery. It also cut its GDP growth estimates for the year.

“The fact they eased at all is a plus for the U.S. economy, while holding off on QE3 is good for the Japanese market as it didn’t strengthen the yen,” said Hideyuki Ishiguro, assistant manager of investment strategy at Okasan Securities.

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Evergrande stock tumbles on fraud accusation

By Chris Oliver, MarketWatch

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Evergrande Real Estate Group Ltd. was drawn into the controversy over questionable accounting practices at listed Chinese companies Thursday, as its board denied allegations of financial impropriety leveled by the Los Angeles–based stock-commentary website Citron Research.

Evergrande
Signing ceremony for the development projects of Chongjiang Jiangjin Evergrande Splendor International Skiing Health Resort and Chongqing Yucai Middle School n January 2012.

The Hong Kong–listed shares of Evergrande HK:3333 -11.38%  EGRNF -6.14% ended down 11.4% at 3.97 Hong Kong dollars (51 U.S. cents), shedding 51 Hong Kong cents from its previous session’s close, and paring an earlier, steeper drop of as much as 88 Hong Kong cents.

Citron said in summary research posted on its website that it had concluded that Guangzhou-based Evergrande is “essentially an insolvent company that has consistently presented fraudulent information to the investing public.”

China Manufacturing Slump May Match That Of 2008 Crisis

By Bloomberg News – Jun 21, 2012

A worker sews shirts at a factory in Shenzhen, Guangdong province, China.

China’s manufacturing may shrink for an eighth month in June, matching the streak during the global financial crisis in a signal the government’s stimulus has yet to reverse the economy’s slowdown.

The preliminary reading was 48.1 for a purchasing managers’ index today from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics. Above-50 readings indicate expansion. The lowest crisis level was 40.9 in November 2008, when industrial production increased 5.4 percent from a year earlier, compared with a gain of 9.6 percent last month.

Today’s report contrasts with comments by officials expressing confidence growth will rebound, with President Hu Jintaosaying in remarks published June 17 that China has taken “targeted measures” to boost domestic demand. Asian stocks fell and the yuan weakened for a second day against the dollar.

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