Investors Welcome Malaysia Reform Budget

Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak (Bloomberg News)

According to The Wall Street Journal, upcoming national elections seem likely to hinder sorely needed economic reforms in places like India and Indonesia. Not so in Malaysia, where Prime Minister Najib Razak’s resounding victory in general elections last May gives him the leeway to push a reform agenda.

Mr. Najib’s 2014 budget presentation last Friday centered on reforms he believes will help balance the nations’ books by 2020. Key among them is a 6% tax on goods and services that Mr. Najib has talked of for years but never had the political clearance to push through – until now.

He also scrapped a sugar subsidy for consumers and announced the government will move to a system of targeted subsidies where only the poorer members of society would benefit from cheaper food items, cooking oil and fuel.

The government says targeted payouts will lower the total subsidy bill – which makes up about 18% of government spending – by some 15.6% next year. Mr. Najib said next year’s subsidy bill will fall to 39.41 billion ringgit ($12.6 billion) from this year’s 46.70 billion ringgit ($14.9 billion).

Mr. Najib forecast a budget deficit of 3.5% next year, down from a projected 4.0% this year.

Opposition parties warned they would protest the new goods-and-services tax – which in any case will exempt basic food items and essential services — but analysts and ratings agencies generally welcomed the budget. So too did investors, who sent the ringgit to a four-month high of 3.1425 against the U.S. dollar Monday, while the yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond hit a three-month low of 3.59. Stocks were little changed.

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Indonesia Home Prices Rise as Demand Bucks Higher Rates

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

According to Bloomberg, Indonesia’s most aggressive monetary tightening since 2005 is set to slow economic growth without denting soaring property demand in the world’s fourth-most populous nation.

A young population, elevated inflation and property-price gains that outpace interest rates are spurring real-estate sales from Jakarta to Manado. Home prices in the third quarter probably rose 14.6 percent from a year earlier, according to a Bank Indonesia survey, while the Indonesian Real Estate Association predicts housing sales will climb more than 50 percent this year.

“Indonesia has a huge population, that’s a potential market for us,” said Setyo Maharso, chairman of the Indonesian real estate association, which predicts 2013 property sales will rise to 400,000 units from 260,000 last year. “For our buyers, as long as they have the ability to pay monthly installments, sales will keep increasing till the year end.”

With foreigners restricted from owning property in SoutheastAsia’s biggest economy, Indonesia is confronting a surge in local demand rather than the capital inflows that spurred record home prices in neighboring Singapore and Hong Kong. After the central bank imposed stricter loan-to-value ratios for mortgages, persistent price gains may prompt the government to raise some real-estate taxes, PT Bank Danamon Indonesia said.

“By giving a luxury tax, especially for high-end properties, it would help to curb home-price increases,” said Anton Gunawan, chief economist at Bank Danamon who was a candidate for the No. 2 job at the central bank this year. “Returns from property remain high as there’s an expectation that home prices are still rising.”

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Do Asian Stocks Climb as Won to Aussie Jump?

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

According to Bloomberg, Asian stocks climbed a fifth day, with the benchmark gauge trading near a five-year high, while emerging-market currencies strengthened on speculation the Federal Reserve will hold off cutting monetary stimulus until next year. Australia’s dollar jumped after inflation data.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.3 percent by 10 a.m. in Tokyo after earlier touching the highest level since June 2008. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPA) futures dropped 0.1 percent after the gauge rose in New York. South Korea’s won climbed to the strongest level since January and Malaysia’s ringgit snapped a three-day decline. The Australian dollar strengthened to hold at a 4 1/2-month high. Copper retreated 0.4 percent after gaining yesterday while silver rose a seventh day.

Barclays Plc pushed out their estimate for the start of Fed tapering to March from December after data delayed because of the U.S. government shutdown showed employers added 148,000 workers in September, below the 180,000 increase projected in a Bloomberg survey. The 16-day shutdown cut U.S. growth and cost jobs, according to an economic aide to President Barack Obama. China’s Treasury holdings fell to a six-month low in August and Australian inflation quickened more than expected last quarter.

“The key takeaway for the Fed from the September U.S. non-farm payrolls is that the U.S. economy is in no shape to withstand a reduction in monetary stimulus,” Matthew Sherwood, head of investment markets research in Sydney at Perpetual Investments, which manages about $25 billion, said in an e-mail. “Expectations of tapering delays will continue to support markets.”

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Malaysia’s Economy at Risk with Growing Consumer Debt

Malaysia’s consumer debt is at 76.6 per cent of its GDP and some economists believe that the growing consumer credit could rock the country’s economy.

Malaysia’s consumer debt is at 76.6 per cent of its GDP and some economists believe that the growing consumer credit could rock the country’s economy.

Malaysia’s consumer debt is at 76.6 per cent of its GDP and some economists believe that the growing consumer credit — where each ringgit of growth nearly matches an extra ringgit of consumer debt — could rock the country’s economy, the Financial Times (FT) reported today.

The country’s household debt ratio is the highest in the region, the influential daily reported, citing Johanna Chua, an economist at Citigroup, who believed this makes the Southeast Asia’s third largest economy vulnerable, especially as lower-income households bear a greater share of the overall debt.

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Indian banks can be trusted: Survey

images (3)“What have you done to me lately?”

For banks around the world, the answer to that question seems to be the determining factor in whether banks are largely trusted. In countries whose financial systems did not blow up during the worldwide recession, trust has remained high. But in some European countries where the banks were generally viewed as having caused the crisis, trust plunged and has not recovered.

Online surveys of “informed publics” in 26 countries were conducted by people hired by Edelman, a public relations firm. Respondents were asked how much they trusted banks “to do the right thing,” on a scale of one – “do not trust them at all” – to nine – “trust them a great deal.” In the 2013 survey, conducted in October and November and released this week at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, more than two-thirds of the respondents in seven areas – all but one of them in Asia – thought the banks were worthy of trust. They were Indonesia, India, Malaysia, China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Mexico.

At the other end of the spectrum, fewer than a third of the respondents in six countries – all in Europe – thought bankers could be trusted. They were Ireland, Spain, Germany, Britain, the Netherlands and Italy.

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Malaysia’s Economic Measures Impress China

“I notice that the Malaysian government is carrying out measures and policies that will promote and benefit the people, such as the 1Malaysia concept, the Government Transformation Programme (GTP) and the Economic Transformation Programme (ETP),” he said.

 

Chai stated that both China and Malaysia were in vital phases of development, shouldering the important task of developing their economies and improving the livelihood of their people.

 

China would like to join hands and work together with Malaysia to further deepen our strategic partnership and to embrace a brighter future of the bilateral relationship,” Chai said in an email interview with Bernama in conjunction with the 63rd anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China on Oct 1.

 

However, the policies and measures undertaken by the government were not the only aspect that caught the ambassador’s eyes since taking up his post here in 2010.

 

Malaysia has impressed him with its “beautiful and richly endowed land, its diligent, broad-minded and enterprising people and its splendid, distinctive and diversified culture” as well.

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India Lags Behind Other Asian Economies

Welcome to the harsh reality: the Indian economy is now growing at a slower pace than many other Asian economies.

 The Indian government said on Friday that the economy expanded by 5.5% in the April-June quarter, a modest 20 basis points more than the rate of expansion in the previous quarter. But it is lower than the growth rate reported recently by some other economies in the region.

In early August, Indonesia said its economy grew 6.4% in the second quarter of the calendar year, powered by domestic consumption and investment. The Philippines said later in that month that its economic growth was a better-than-anticipated 5.9%, with strong domestic consumption once more playing an important role. Malaysia is also keeping pace with India, with its latest data showing quarterly growth of 5.4%.

These new numbers show that India is no longer the second-fastest growing economy after China, something that was taken for granted not too long ago. In 2007, the last year of the synchronized global boom, India was growing by at least 3 percentage points faster than these countries, according to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). To be sure, China is clearly in the middle of a sharp slowdown, but its economy continues to grow faster than the Indian one.

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Malaysia Ranked Highest in Asian Economy

Landmark Petronas Towers: Malaysia

PETALING JAYA: Malaysia is the highest placed developing Asian economy despite its lowered ranking in the Global Competitiveness Index 2012-2013 by the World Economic Forum (WEF).

Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department Datuk Seri Idris Jala said that this held significant implications for Malaysia’s long-term economic policies in raising Gross National Income per capita.

“The Government will address areas requiring improvement as highlighted by the report, and will also continue to invest resources in the areas the WEF acknowledges to have shown positive impact,” he said in a statement yesterday.

In the report, Malaysia remained within the top 20% but its global competitiveness ranking had slipped down four notches this year to the 25th spot, coming in behind other developed Asian countries such as Hong Kong (9th), Japan (10th), Taiwan (13th) and South Korea (19th).

Idris said the drop showed that there was no room for complacency as many countries also continued to improve competitiveness.

 

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Palm Oil Lobby Seeks Relief With Lower Tax Rate

Kuala Lumpur. The Palm Oil Refiners Association of Malaysia and Malaysian Estate Owners’ Association — representing both upstream and downstream stakeholders — suggest that the government should lower the current 23 percent crude palm oil tax to 8 percent instead of increasing the duty-free CPO export quota.

This proposal is seen as a win-win solution to the present palm oil dilemma.

Recently, the Plantation Industries and Commodities Ministry announced the export of another two million metric tons of duty-free CPO by the end of next month — a move that many refiners see as throwing good money after bad. This is because this decision will result in the government forgoing some 4 billion rinngit ($1.2 billion) in tax collection by allowing the export of up to 5.5 million tons of duty-free CPO.

On Thursday, a refiner and the MEOA expressed their consensus to stem the losses and solve the current dilemma. As palm oil prices continued to fall in the last four months, the refiner said it was naive to assume that by pushing palm oil exports, stock levels would come down and this would prompt palm oil prices to jump.

“Stock management is one thing, but there’s also the strengthening of the US dollar,” said the refiner, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

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IMF Scales Back Southeast Asia Growth Forecast

The International Monetary Fund has cut its forecast on the economic growth of five nations in Southeast Asia to better reflect faltering growth in the global economy. Monday’s assessment, released in a report by the IMF, was the latest development institution to announce an assessment after the World Bank cut its economic growth forecast for next year.

The IMF cut the economic growth forecast for Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, which together are known as the Asean 5, to expand 6.1 percent in 2013, slightly lower that its earlier forecast of 6.2 percent. It cut the global economic outlook for growth to 3.9 percent next year, from its previous forecast of 4.1 percent.

Still, the IMF, which loaned billions of dollars to Thailand and Indonesia during the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis with strict conditions, maintained the growth forecast for the year at 5.4 percent, unchanged from its forecast three months ago.

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