Investors Welcome Malaysia Reform Budget

Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak (Bloomberg News)

According to The Wall Street Journal, upcoming national elections seem likely to hinder sorely needed economic reforms in places like India and Indonesia. Not so in Malaysia, where Prime Minister Najib Razak’s resounding victory in general elections last May gives him the leeway to push a reform agenda.

Mr. Najib’s 2014 budget presentation last Friday centered on reforms he believes will help balance the nations’ books by 2020. Key among them is a 6% tax on goods and services that Mr. Najib has talked of for years but never had the political clearance to push through – until now.

He also scrapped a sugar subsidy for consumers and announced the government will move to a system of targeted subsidies where only the poorer members of society would benefit from cheaper food items, cooking oil and fuel.

The government says targeted payouts will lower the total subsidy bill – which makes up about 18% of government spending – by some 15.6% next year. Mr. Najib said next year’s subsidy bill will fall to 39.41 billion ringgit ($12.6 billion) from this year’s 46.70 billion ringgit ($14.9 billion).

Mr. Najib forecast a budget deficit of 3.5% next year, down from a projected 4.0% this year.

Opposition parties warned they would protest the new goods-and-services tax – which in any case will exempt basic food items and essential services — but analysts and ratings agencies generally welcomed the budget. So too did investors, who sent the ringgit to a four-month high of 3.1425 against the U.S. dollar Monday, while the yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond hit a three-month low of 3.59. Stocks were little changed.

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China finance minister sees 7% growth in 2013

China finance minister sees 7% growth in 2013

China’s finance minister has said he expects the nation’s economy to grow seven per cent this year, raising questions about whether it can achieve the official 7.5 per cent target set four months ago.

WASHINGTON: China’s finance minister has said he expects the nation’s economy to grow seven per cent this year, raising questions about whether it can achieve the official 7.5 per cent target set four months ago.

“Our expected GDP growth rate this year is seven per cent,” Lou Jiwei told reporters on the sidelines of an annual strategic and economic dialogue between China and the United States in Washington on Thursday.

“Of course, it won’t be a big problem for us if we achieve growth of seven per cent or 6.5 per cent.”

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Malaysia’s Economy at Risk with Growing Consumer Debt

Malaysia’s consumer debt is at 76.6 per cent of its GDP and some economists believe that the growing consumer credit could rock the country’s economy.

Malaysia’s consumer debt is at 76.6 per cent of its GDP and some economists believe that the growing consumer credit could rock the country’s economy.

Malaysia’s consumer debt is at 76.6 per cent of its GDP and some economists believe that the growing consumer credit — where each ringgit of growth nearly matches an extra ringgit of consumer debt — could rock the country’s economy, the Financial Times (FT) reported today.

The country’s household debt ratio is the highest in the region, the influential daily reported, citing Johanna Chua, an economist at Citigroup, who believed this makes the Southeast Asia’s third largest economy vulnerable, especially as lower-income households bear a greater share of the overall debt.

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Taiwan Lowers 2013 GDP Growth Forecast Despite First Quarter Expansion

Taiwan lowers GDP forecast for this year even after faster-than-expected expansion in the first quarter. (Maurice Tsai/Bloomberg)

Taiwan lowers GDP forecast for this year even after faster-than-expected expansion in the first quarter. (Maurice Tsai/Bloomberg)

Chinmei Sung from Bloomberg reports that Taiwan lowered the economic growth forecast for this year even as it reported a faster expansion in the first quarter than initially estimated.

Gross domestic product rose 1.67 percent in the three months through March from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said in a revised estimate released in Taipei today. Its preliminary report last month was 1.54 percent, while the median in a Bloomberg News survey of 18 economists was 1.5 percent.

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A New Numerology for Predicting China’s Economy

The dreaded number "four" in Chinese Culture may be involved in predicting China's economic cycle

The dreaded number “four” in Chinese Culture may be involved in predicting China’s economic cycle

Robert Silk from WSJ: The number “four” is unlucky in China. It sounds a little bit like “death,” and nobody wants it in their phone number.

But one economist at Peking University, one of the country’s top academic institutions, is convinced traditional numerology has got it wrong.

“What are the boom years in the Chinese economy?” asked Cai Hongbin at a Thursday morning press conference. “Eighty-three and ’84, ’93 and ’94, 2003 and 2004.”

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Singapore Shows Surprising Growth in April

Singapore's economy took an unexpected turn higher in the first quarter of the year as a rally in financial markets buoyed the city-state's banking sector.

Singapore’s economy took an unexpected turn higher in the first quarter of the year.

Martin Vaughan from WSJ: Singapore’s economy took an unexpected turn higher in the first quarter of the year as a rally in financial markets buoyed the city-state’s banking sector.
Gross domestic product expanded 1.8% in the first quarter on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis, an improvement from preliminary data that had indicated a 1.4% decline, the government said Thursday. Officials said they expect growth to pick up modestly for the remainder of the year on stronger external demand, but kept their full-year growth forecast at 1.0%-3.0%.

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China: Tough Challenges Ahead in Shift to Consumption-Driven Economy

China faces a difficult task of rebalancing the economy towards a consumption-driven model.

China faces a difficult task of rebalancing the economy towards a consumption-driven model.

Tom Orlik from WSJ reports that a more detailed look at China’s economic performance in 2012 shows it tipped further off balance, relying more than ever on credit-fueled investment, a trend it had tried to rein in.

A further tilt toward capital spending flies in the face of Beijing’s goals to shift to a consumption-driven economic model and threatens to add to a mounting debt problem, exacerbate industrial overcapacity that is dragging down profits, and produce more empty “ghost cities.”

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US Ambassador Urges India to Open Economy for More Foreign Investments

First woman US Ambassador to India: Nancy J. Powell

First woman US Ambassador to India: Nancy J. Powell (Photo: Ranjeet Kumar)

According to the report from India Times, US Ambassador Nancy Powell on Tuesday called for greater economic opening and more foreign investments for India’s higher economic growth, saying “there is more yet to do” in the area of reforms to return to 10 per cent growth.

Washington’s first woman ambassador to India contended that it was high tariff and non-tariff barriers that were preventing American companies, among others, from “competing” in the country. “Currently, tariff and non-tariff barriers are too high, preventing India from obtaining the latest and best technology and the most advanced equipment it needs to meet its objectives,” Powell said.

 

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Is the Indian economy stronger than commonly assumed?

images (5)“When the facts change, I change my mind,” said John Maynard Keynes. Will the revised data on gross domestic product (GDP) for 2010-11 make us do likewise?

For the revised GDP estimates issued last week question popular descriptions of India’s growth slowdown, challenge estimates of a lowered potential output and possibly shed some light on the inflation-growth disconnect in 2012. The improved data has been computed from the dependable Annual Survey of Industries (ASI) rather than the notorious Index of Industrial Production (IIP); it compels us to revisit these issues and raises policy setting concerns.
The facts: India’s GDP growth for 2010-11 stands reworked to 9.3% instead of the earlier estimate of 8.4%—nearly one percentage point higher. Much of this increase comes from revised manufacturing sector growth—9.7% year-on-year, or 2.1 percentage points more. What’s more, the increase in the estimated growth for 2010-11 is itself built upon a 1.6 point increase in growth during the previous year (now 11.3% for 2009-10).
On the demand side, it was the capital stock growth that contributed 4.2 percentage points to the 10.5% real GDP growth (at market prices). Gross fixed capital formation growth is now placed at 14% year-on-year, nearly double the earlier measure of 7.5%, and a substantial jump over the 7.7% growth in 2009-10; this acceleration lifted the real gross capital formation rate to 40% in 2010-11, from 38.4% the previous year. The other demand component that has been revised is public consumption: growth in actual government expenditure was a more modest 5.9% in 2010-11 against the 8.2% recorded earlier and a big drop from the 14% growth in 2009-10.
The new facts challenge some hypotheses about the collapse of the India growth story. For one, the “policy paralysis” explanation that throttled investments and exacerbated supply constraints from 2010 weakens in the light of robust manufacturing growth and capacity creation in 2010-11. This may explain the sudden, sharp drop in growth to 6.2% in 2011-12, when scams emerged to dent business confidence, but not before.